Robert Scoble wrote an interesting post, asking: ‘Is the mobile tech press wrong in positioning Apple vs. Google?’ He poses that, although, Apple and Google are competitors it’s currently actually about the divide between Web-and-app-friendly devices and non-web-and-app-friendly devices. His thesis is that companies that make web-and-app friendly devices ‘will steal market share from those that do not and a confused strategy, like Nokia has, is going to look mixed because consumers will go with a company like Apple or Google who has said “we’re all in.”’
I think Scoble could be right that there is a divide. On one side there are the innovative Google (Nexus One + Droid) smartphones and Apple iPhone, providing very user friendly access to-, and development for web browsing and applications, and on the other side the other smart phones out there, notably Nokia, Windows Mobile OS based and RIM (Research-In-Motion) BlackBerry phones, that perform less in this respect.
However, looking at numbers calculated by AppleInsider.com on smart phone market shares (see chart below), I don’t think it will be a matter of Apple and Google stealing market share from other parties, but of low-growth or loss of market share in a growing market: in other words, other parties will lose some of their relevance. With this conclusion, the mobile tech press isn’t wrong in positioning Apple vs. Google, but some might indeed forget the shift in relevance from Nokia, Microsoft, and to lesser extent RIM BlackBerry, to Apple and Google.
Source: Canalys. 2009 unit figures calculated from reported market share. Numbers were calculated and published by AppleInsider.com
Here are my quick & dirty predictions of what could happen with smart phone market shares in 2010-2011:
- The overall smart phone market will grow further. The web has become more and more the application platform for consumers in daily life. Especially Apple, with Google catching up, has enabled this vision with user-friendly access to the web and its applications. Consumers love it, it fulfills their needs of modern digital life and price points for low-end smart phones could go down, implying that more consumers will choose to buy one in the future.
- Google Droid and Nexus One phones will catch up with Apple in market share. The Nexus One (used by Google to push its innovative mobile Internet services), the ability to choose different carriers through the Google online mobile store, and the future 3rd party smart phones based on the same software as the Nexus One, will make Google catch up. Beyond 2011 I could even imagine that it’s market share will be even be bigger than that of Apple, simply because it will have a whole range of phones and because Google has an open system and free applications in the cloud.
- Depending on the severity of the problems such as mentioned by Scoble, the growth of smart phone sales for Nokia and Microsoft Windows Mobile OS based devices could slow down or even halt. Microsoft will have to show that it’s new Mobile OS version 7 is a worthy competitor (I have my doubts).
- RIM BlackBerry sales could continue to grow steadily with the growth of the overall market. Although Scoble signals problems with development for BlackBerry applications, RIM has shown spectacular sales growth in recent years. I can imagine corporate workers will still love their BlackBerry and won’t easily switch. Likely, to them the web applications are a welcome addition, having less applications than e.g. for the iPhone is not a deal breaker.
So, instead of Apple and Google stealing market share from other parties in the smart phone market, they (especially Google) will benefit from the overall growth of the market. Nokia and Microsoft will likely benefit much less from this growth and thus their relative market share declines, making them less relevant (although Nokia will remain a large party in the market). RIM BlackBerry will also grow with the market but not as spectacular as Google and Apple do. In 2011 and beyond Google could turn out to be the big winner in smart phone land.
The evolution of technology products and their markets are usually very non-linear and thus hard to predict, but that’s part of the fun! Can you agree with above analysis and predictions?
Tags: Apple, Google, market development, Microsoft, Nokia, prediction, reply to, Robert Scoble, Smart Phones, Windows Mobile
